An Update to FEMA P366: Estimating Annualized Earthquake Loss Estimates in the United States
Earthquake risk continues to rise within the United States given the rapid growth in human and economic exposure complemented by the fact that much larger fractions of built assets are located in high earthquake hazard areas. Although modernization of seismic codes and advancements in seismic design, construction, and retrofitting practices have greatly increased life safety over time, the bulk of the earthquake-induced losses is due to damage to nonstructural components and contents. We conduct systematic assessments of earthquake risk by utilizing the latest building inventory, exposure, and earthquake hazard data to evaluate annualized earthquake losses in the United States—a step towards updating the 2017 FEMA P366 study. Specifically, the newly released Hazus 6.0 model is employed that incorporates significant updates to building inventory, demographics, and replacement cost models, resulting in a more than 42% increase in total building replacement value relative to the previous version of Hazus. The hazard data considered are based on the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the Conterminous U.S. and the 2021 NSHM for Hawaii. It should be noted that older data are still used for Alaska (2007), Puerto Rico (2003), and the U.S. Virgin Islands (2003).
Our analysis indicates that annualized earthquake losses have more than doubled across the country to 14.7B USD of which 9.6B is from California alone. This presentation will discuss data enhancements, updates to hazard and exposure mapping, and geographic distribution of earthquake risk in the United States. In addition, we compare the impact on AEL estimates of changing from 2014 to the 2018 NSHM for the Conterminous U.S. The results from the FEMA P366 study are now widely used in a variety of applications supporting earthquake mitigation programs including the distribution of state NEHRP grants.
Session: USGS National Seismic Hazard Models: 2023 and Beyond
Type: Oral
Room: 208A
Date: 4/18/2023
Presentation Time: 02:45 PM (local time)
Presenting Author: Kishor Jaiswal
Student Presenter: No
Additional Authors
Kishor Jaiswal Presenting Author Corresponding Author kjaiswal@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Doug Bausch dbausch@niyamit.com NiyamIT Inc. |
Jesse Rozelle Jesse.rozelle@fema.dhs.gov Federal Emergency Management Agency |
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An Update to FEMA P366: Estimating Annualized Earthquake Loss Estimates in the United States
Category
USGS National Seismic Hazard Models: 2023 and Beyond
Description