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Real Time Tsunami Run-Up Estimation From Real Time Finite Fault Models

Often, Tsunami Early Warning relies on a precomputed set of scenarios for places near the tsunami generation zone. These scenarios are non realistic and are computed from a uniform constant slip over the rupture surface, because of the short reaction time for the local authorities to manage the threat. Here, we present a new development to be implemented on Early Warning Systems, that allows real time tsunami modeling using the W-Phase solution of the seismic source and the finite fault model inversion to evaluate tsunami threat levels. A fast linear approximation of shallow water equations turns into a numerical solver that can be implemented on a parallel thread. As a case study, the proposed method is applied in Chile. The results show that it is possible to obtain consistent and realistic threat levels and arrival times for the tsunami in progress within times useful for Tsunami Early Warning, since the earthquake origin time.The proposal considers realistic heterogeneous and kinematic fault models of seismic sources obtained rapidly using continuous GPS, strong motion and broadband records, expanding the evaluation capabilities of Early Warning Systems and diminishing the bias imposed by precomputed scenarios, by using the source solution for the particular earthquake that generated the tsunami in progress.

Session: Six Decades of Tsunami Science: From the Source of the 1964 Tsunami to Modern Community Preparedness [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Room: Exhibit Hall

Date: 5/2/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Mauricio Fuentes

Student Presenter: No

Additional Authors