Toward Earthquake Early Warning in Alaska
The complexity of Alaska presents several challenges for earthquake early warning systems. These include the presence of offshore earthquakes, transform boundaries and crustal faults extending hundreds of kilometers, deep earthquakes, and a complicated coastline. This variety, combined with population centers spread far apart, make it challenging to anticipate early warning system performance and to design a network accordingly. As Alaska begins to plan for early warning, we present here a set of scenarios and proposed network plans. Our objective is to begin envisioning how, and how well, early warning might function in Alaska. We present warning time estimates for groups of deterministic earthquake scenarios along major faults in Alaska. These scenarios are designed to be meaningful test cases for Alaska EEW while also exploring how changes in source characteristics – such as magnitude, depth, location, and fault system – impact the timeliness of warnings. We use simple travel-time estimates, source time models, and the current seismic network to model hypothetical detection and alert times. We then compare warning times to peak ground motions obtained with ShakeMap 4 to determine the warning effectiveness. Our conservative results suggest the potential for timely warning for shallow earthquakes for ground motions up to intensity V. More ideal scenarios, including deep earthquakes, could receive advance warning up to intensity VII. Informed by these results, we present preliminary concepts for how to build a network capability of delivering this level of warning or better.
Session: End-to-End Advancements in Earthquake Early Warning Systems -IV
Type: Oral
Room: Tikahtnu Ballroom E/F
Date: 5/3/2024
Presentation Time: 11:00 AM (local time)
Presenting Author: Alex Fozkos
Student Presenter: Yes
Additional Authors
Alex Fozkos Presenting Author Corresponding Author afozkos@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Michael West mewest@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Natalia Ruppert naruppert@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Ronni Grapenthin rgrapenthin@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Carolyn Parcheta ceparcheta@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Stephen Holtkamp sgholtkamp@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Nate Murphy nwmurphy@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
Elisabeth Nadin enadin@alaska.edu University of Alaska Fairbanks |
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Toward Earthquake Early Warning in Alaska
Category
End-to-End Advancements in Earthquake Early Warning Systems
Description