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Exploring the Ethical Tensions and Communication Challenges of Publicly Available Global Aftershock Forecasting From Science Agencies

Aftershock forecasting is an important tool that helps decision makers and various publics to understand what the future could look like in an earthquake sequence, after a large mainshock. The U.S. Geological Survey produces aftershock forecasts for various uses and audiences post-earthquake, assisting in decision making for those impacted. This information is available in several ways: domestically, an aftershock communication template is available to the public post Magnitude 5+ earthquakes; and, internationally, a product is shared with the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance for events with PAGER alerts at the orange and red-level for fatalities. Given that the USGS already produces these, what is the ethical responsibility to make these international forecasts more available for public safety considerations? Further, by communicating these forecasts publicly beyond the United States borders, what are the considerations of scientific sovereignty of nations? What potential is there for miscommunication of forecasts in other nations, with diverse cultural and linguistic backgrounds? This presentation explores these ethical and social tensions, reporting on a group of listening sessions with scientific and response community members from around the world in 2022 and 2023. Further, we suggest some solutions to these issues as well as future pathways, including aftershock forecasting triggered by impact levels e.g. PAGER levels, rather than magnitude.

Session: Creating Actionable Earthquake Information Products - II

Type: Oral

Room: Tikahtnu Ballroom C

Date: 5/1/2024

Presentation Time: 11:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Sara McBride

Student Presenter: No

Additional Authors