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A General Probabilistic Trans-dimensional Approach to Estimate Spatiotemporal Variations of Recorded Seismicity

The parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter relation, particularly the b-value, are used to characterize the source behavior of seismicity given an earthquake catalog. Many studies have considered spatiotemporal variations in the b-value, which are interpreted to be linked to the accumulation of stress near active faults in Earth’s crust. The b-value is also a valuable input for earthquake hazard assessment. Most methods for estimating variations in the b-value rely on subjective choices of key parameters, such as the minimum and maximum magnitude values and spatiotemporal windowing, which can significantly affect the results. Recent work has introduced a probabilistic trans-dimensional approach, where windows are self-defined according to the information contained within the earthquake catalog. Existing methods require prior definition of the magnitude of completeness of the earthquake catalog, such that only events above this magnitude threshold are considered in the analysis. Here, we develop a general probabilistic, trans-dimensional approach that uses the entire (incomplete) earthquake catalog to estimate models of the spatiotemporal variations in the b-value as well as catalog incompleteness (i.e., decay of the distribution at high and low magnitudes). We demonstrate our method by analyzing several simulated and real earthquake catalogs, including natural and induced seismicity in northwestern Canada. Our results show that variations in catalog completeness can bias estimates of b-value variations when not accounted for, and vice versa. Our results highlight the effectiveness of a general probabilistic trans-dimensional approach in considering the entire earthquake catalog to obtain robust estimates of spatiotemporal variations in recorded seismicity. This will lead to more reliable assessments of seismic hazards, particularly for regions of frequent induced seismicity, such as in western Canada.

Session: Mechanistic Insights into Fluid-induced Earthquakes from the Laboratory to the Field [Poster]

Type: Poster

Room: Exhibit Hall

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Jeremy Gosselin

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 95

Additional Authors