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Evaluating Landslide Forecasting in British Columbia, Canada

Session: Critical Zone, Environmental and Cryospheric Seismology [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/22/2021

Presentation Time: 03:45 PM Pacific

Description: 

The natural disasters that happen after an earthquake, termed secondary hazards, can be more dangerous than the earthquake alone, causing more casualties than expected. This research utilizes the ground failure code developed by the United States Geological Survey to detect potential landslide locations and improve emergency response planning. The code uses multiple geospatial datasets describing soil, precipitation, and slope conditions as well as a ShakeMap file, resulting in an estimate of the probability of a landslide or liquefaction occurring within a given area. Data from the October 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake in the North Coast Regional District of British Columbia were used to test the accuracy of the methodology. The output dataset was compared visually and statistically with an inventory of observed landslides that happened during and immediately post earthquake. The methodology performs well, as it assigns a high probability of landsliding where they did in fact happen in 2012. However, sensitivity of results is lower than would be needed for response as a large percentage of the study area would have been in the ‘high probability of landslides’ category. Although the USGS ground failure code can be easily and quickly adapted for use across the globe, future work should incorporate regional datasets or try varying the threshold for ‘high’ landslide probability to make this tool more impactful in Canada.

Presenting Author: Sydney Wong

Student Presenter: Yes

Authors