Date: 4/23/2021
Session Time: 9:45 AM to 11:00 AM Pacific
How Should Low-Probability Earthquakes be Considered in Hazard Assessments?
Large, shallow, crustal earthquakes can have very long recurrence intervals, on the order of tens of thousands of years. However, their occurrence near urban centers represents one of the most significant and enigmatic seismic risks facing our society today. For example, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake resulted in losses of 3-4% of New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product [Parker & Steenkamp, 2012], despite occurring on a previously unknown, shallow fault within the city limits. This highlights the need for seismic hazard assessment that in some way considers the impact of low probability earthquakes.
There have been great strides in characterizing some of the faults capable of this type of rupture, largely from the disciplines of satellite geodesy and paleoseismology. These studies are often expensive and spatially limited, however, leading to fault catalogs which are heterogeneous in content and demonstrably incomplete. For this reason, fault databases are inconsistently incorporated in seismic hazard maps even when there is some information available about a potentially damaging earthquake source. To bridge this gap will require participation from scientists, engineers and government agencies to (1) establish how much can be known about faults, (2) evaluate impacts to society and consider their sensitivity to unknowns and (3) consider the implications for policy. This session invites presentations which highlight recent advances in characterizing low probability faults, including their geometry, mechanism, magnitude-recurrence interval, maximum magnitude or other properties. We then welcome studies which quantitatively assess the resulting seismic hazards or consider the effect of such faults on seismic hazard mapping programs. The goal of this session is to facilitate a vibrant discussion concerning the future of seismic assessment which can fully incorporate the latest research in earthquake physics, geodesy, geomorphology and tectonics.
Conveners
Tiegan E. Hobbs, Natural Resources Canada (tiegan.hobbs@canada.ca)
Chris Rollins, University of Leeds (j.c.rollins@leeds.ac.uk)
Kristin Morell, University of California, Santa Barbara (kmorell@geol.ucsb.edu)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | Paleoseismic Investigation of the Levan and Fayette Segments of the Wasatch Fault Zone, Central Utah | 09:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Basement Structure of the Southern Fairbanks Seismic Zone and Its Relation to Large (M>6) Earthquakes (1929-1947) | 10:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | New Perspectives on Newport-Inglewood Fault Geometry | 10:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Three Kernel Approach to Earthquake Source Modeling: Incorporating Incomplete or Low Resolution Seismicity, Fault and Deformation Datasets in Continental China | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Use of Scenario Earthquakes for Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Central United States | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 75 Minute(s) |
How Should Low-Probability Earthquakes be Considered in Hazard Assessments?
Description
Type: Oral
Date: 4/23/2021
Time: 9:45 AM to 11:00 AM Pacific