One-Year Seismic Hazard and Risk Maps Due to Wastewater Disposal in Oklahoma
Session: Mechanisms of Induced Seismicity: Pressure Diffusion, Elastic Stressing and Aseismic Slip [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/20/2021
Presentation Time: 04:15 PM Pacific
Description:
In the past decade, several parts of the United States, including Oklahoma, have experienced unprecedented seismicity rates that have been attributed to wastewater disposal activities carried out by the oil and gas industry. In this study, we perform a probabilistic assessment of the time-dependent seismic hazard in Oklahoma and incorporate these results into an integrated seismic risk model to assess the evolution of the state-wide economic losses, including a conservative forecast through 2030. Our risk model employs an injection-driven earthquake rate model, a region-specific ground motion model, a recent Vs30 map, HAZUS exposure data and updated vulnerability curves for both structural and non-structural elements, and contents. The calculations are performed using a stochastic Monte Carlo based approach implemented in the OpenQuake software engine. The resulting seismic hazard maps illustrate the incompatibility of the regional seismic provisions with the recent seismicity. In 2015 in particular, the induced seismic hazard in several places in Oklahoma was higher than along the San Andreas fault. During the peak of seismicity in 2015, the seismic risk was 275 times higher than the background level, with the vast majority of losses originating from damages to non-structural elements (66%) and contents (20%). We believe that our seismic risk model is a significant upgrade to previous efforts, with our loss estimates being in reasonable agreement with the paid insurance claims. Even though our risk estimates are fairly stable overall, they show significant sensitivity to the Ground Motion Model selection. Finally, our risk model can be adopted in an ongoing manner, helping stakeholders to quantify the benefits of various risk mitigation measures and to define acceptable production levels.
Presenting Author: Iason Grigoratos
Student Presenter: No
Authors
Iason Grigoratos Presenting Author Corresponding Author i.grigoratos@utexas.edu University of Texas at Austin |
Paolo Bazzurro paolo.bazzurro@iusspavia.it University School of Advanced Studies of Pavia (IUSS) |
Ellen Rathje e.rathje@mail.utexas.edu University of Texas at Austin |
Alexandros Savvaidis alexandros.savvaidis@beg.utexas.edu Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin |
|
|
|
|
|
One-Year Seismic Hazard and Risk Maps Due to Wastewater Disposal in Oklahoma
Category
Mechanisms of Induced Seismicity: Pressure Diffusion, Elastic Stressing and Aseismic Slip