Research and Application of Seismological Parameter Methods in Earthquake Prediction
Session: New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/19/2021
Presentation Time: 03:45 PM Pacific
Description:
Seismicity is a very complex natural phenomenon, which involves many physical processes of time and space scales. It is one of the most commonly used methods for earthquake prediction and seismic risk assessment to describe the rule of seismicity based on the statistical empirical law obtained from observation. The seismological parameter methods are used to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the region and to explore the seismogenic regularity of strong earthquakes in the future. On the basis of previous studies, we selected 11 parameters with better prediction efficiency from the existing parameters for improvement and innovation. It includes seismological parameters such as seismic period spectrum, earthquake rate index, modulation ratio, wave velocity ratio, Benioff strain ratio, quiescence, creep, RTL, C value, D value, b value and η value. Based on the retrospective anomaly analysis before the historical earthquakes, the prediction indexes for long, medium, short and imminent earthquake prediction are established. During the process of earthquake trend prediction, we found a number of seismological parameters show significant anomalies before the strong earthquakes occurred since 2020. Taking the Nima, Tibet MS6.6 earthquake on July 23 as an example, the earthquake rate index, modulation ratio and b value show significant anomalies in the area near the epicenter before the earthquake, which means these parameters could provide effective prediction for the area with lower monitoring capacity. At present, we have carried out the nationwide dynamic cloud-image tracking method with multi parameters. The assessment results can provide an important scientific basis for the determination of the annual seismic risk regions and the short-term earthquake prediction.
This study was supported by the National Key R & D Program of China (2017YFC1500502) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (41504047)
Presenting Author: Yanyan Han
Student Presenter: No
Authors
Yanyan Han Presenting Author Corresponding Author hanyy@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Yang Zang zangyang@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Lingyuan Meng menglingyuan@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Xianghua Jiang jiangxh@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Mengyu Xie xiemengyu@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Yue Wang wangyue@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Yawei Ma yawei_m@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Shiguang Deng dengsg@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Wen Yang yangwen@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
Haixia Shi shihaixia08@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, , China (Mainland) |
Jin Song songjinbent@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, , China (Mainland) |
Xiaotao Zhang zhangxiaotao@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, , China (Mainland) |
Research and Application of Seismological Parameter Methods in Earthquake Prediction
Category
New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments