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Estimate of Earthquake Potential from Dynamic Rupture Simulation Along the Anninghe Fault, Sichuan, China

Session: Physics-Based Earthquake Rupture Modeling and Strong Motion Simulations [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/22/2021

Presentation Time: 03:45 PM Pacific

Description: 

The Anninghe fault, locating at the boundary between the Sichuan-Yunnan provinces, China, has been suggested as a long-existing seismic gap since the last large earthquake (M 7 1/2) in 1536. Based on the geodetic observations, the Anninghe fault is now accumulating energy thus features high seismic risk. Here, we investigate the earthquake potential on the Anninghe fault by numerical rupture simulations. We derive the stress accumulation pattern on the fault based on the interseismic locking model and conduct spontaneous rupture simulations. Our models indicate that the Anninghe fault is now capable of generating earthquakes with magnitudes up to ~7.3. In addition, we find along-strike rupture segmentations near the Mianning city and at the middle way between Mianning and the Xichang city. Such segmentation phenomena are well consistent with the reports of historical earthquakes in this region. Furthermore, significant surface rupture has been found in our models, with surface slip comparable to the values identified in field surveys of the historical earthquakes. In addition, we find that the shallow slip varies significantly among models with different nucleation depths and among different segments, highlighting the complexity in estimating surface damages in future earthquakes.

Presenting Author: Suli Yao

Student Presenter: Yes

Authors