Constraining Stochastic Slip Rupture Models with Geodetic Coupling Models: An Example Application to PTHA at the Cascadia Subduction Zone
Session: Physics-Based Earthquake Rupture Modeling and Strong Motion Simulations [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/22/2021
Presentation Time: 03:45 PM Pacific
Description:
Although heterogeneities persist in fault zone characteristics and the ensuant rupture processes, these heterogeneities, for instance slip deficit associated with slab locking, are often overlooked in rupture modeling techniques. Slab locking may hold important information for future hazard preparedness since there is a noticeable correlation of high locking with high slip during large ruptures. In this work we model stochastic slip ruptures using the von Karman autocorrelation function (ACF) with application of the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion for random slip patch generation. Here, we implement previously determined slip deficit models in the KL expansion to constrain rupture potentials. In order to understand the implication of the locking models in the stochastic modeling technique, we apply these models to probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Cascadia subduction zone. The three classes of rupture models - two with inclusion of end member locking models, and one without - ranging in magnitude between M7.8 and M9.1 are then implemented into the open source tsunami modeling software GeoClaw in order to calculate estimated tsunami arrival heights along the Pacific northwest. Slip partitioning between models appreciably varies in terms of the mean locations of maximum slip. First-order observations at local tsunami hazards from the suite of ruptures detail variations in tsunami arrival heights between rupture classes. Influence in heterogeneity produced by locking models is apparent, however, our ability to further constrain locking models for subduction zones for authoritative hazard assessments depends on future advances in seafloor geodesy.
Presenting Author: David T. Small
Student Presenter: Yes
Authors
David Small Presenting Author dsmall2@uoregon.edu University of Oregon |
Diego Melgar Corresponding Author dmelgarm@uoregon.edu University of Oregon |
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Constraining Stochastic Slip Rupture Models with Geodetic Coupling Models: An Example Application to PTHA at the Cascadia Subduction Zone
Category
Physics-based Earthquake Rupture Modeling and Strong Motion Simulations