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A First Public National Seismic Risk Model for Canada

Session: Recent Engineering Uses of National Seismic Hazard Models I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/22/2021

Presentation Time: 02:30 PM Pacific

Description: 

The National Earthquake Risk Profile for Canada, scheduled for release in 2021, will establish an open and accessible base of evidence to inform disaster resilience planning in accordance with policy guidelines established as part of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The profile includes probabilistic and deterministic risk assessments, made uniformly across the country. The deterministic portion comprises a catalogue of scenario earthquakes, created with a consistent methodology for representative earthquake source zones across Canada, suitable for tabletop exercises and response planning. The probabilistic component extends the scope of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (CanadaSHM6) currently used to inform Canada’s National Building Code (NBCC). All modelling is done using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation’s ‘OpenQuake Engine’ through a public partnership with Natural Resources Canada. Results from deterministic and probabilistic runs are expressed in terms of a structured framework of indicators that profile the physical, social and economic dimensions of earthquake risk at the neighborhood scale. Risk metrics are used to both analyze existing baseline conditions of earthquake risk, and to evaluate the potential for risk reduction through proactive investments in seismic mitigation and post-disaster recovery planning. The models and accompanying indicator framework are designed to support implementation of the Sendai framework at local and regional scales -- and to help build capabilities for incorporating a disaster resilience lens into ongoing emergency management, sustainable land use and financial planning initiatives in Canada.

In addition to developing this model, Natural Resources Canada is developing a purpose-built web platform which will allow users to explore risk either by address, by municipality, or by high-level themes of impacts. This free service is tailored to average citizens as well as more technical users of risk information, with the aim of increasing uptake of risk information at multiple levels of governance.

Presenting Author: Tiegan E. Hobbs

Student Presenter: No

Authors