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Dynamic Rupture Modeling and the Powell Center Working Group on Tsunami Sources

Session: Exploring Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation Along Complex Fault Systems II

Type: Oral

Date: 4/20/2021

Presentation Time: 10:15 AM Pacific

Description: 

Members of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program and other researchers have formed a working group, partially supported by the USGS Powell Center. The goal is to define and implement a transparent and scientifically based methodology and evaluation process for characterizing historical and realistic hypothetical sources of tsunamis that pose a potential hazard to U.S. populations, commerce, and infrastructure.

Using a logic tree process, and including regional experts, the working group is synthesizing existing geological and geophysical knowledge of submarine earthquake faults and coastal landslide sources to produce a database of source models for use in creating hazards assessments for risk reduction. We will also address the scientific question of how increasing sophistication in tsunami source models impacts products such as evacuation plans, mitigation of damage, and land-use planning.

The first week-long meeting adopted a probabilistic evaluation process where possible. The second and third meetings focused on Alaska tsunami sources and on tsunami sources that impact the U.S. East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Caribbean Territories. Future meetings will focus separately on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and on Pacific tsunami sources other than Cascadia and Alaska. Results and discussions from the meetings are being used to understand and fill knowledge gaps within the earthquake and tsunami modeling communities.

One aspect of the meetings is that participants are informed about results from physics-based rupture models, with a goal of simulating more realistic tsunami sources for input into the logic tree process. In particular, researchers from this group are working on 2D dynamic rupture models that incorporate topography, ambient stress, and frictional parameter spaces to help elucidate possible rupture scenarios in the regions of interest.

Presenting Author: Stephanie L. Ross

Student Presenter: No

Authors