Date: 4/22/2021
Session Time: 9:45 AM to 11:00 AM Pacific
Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts
Regional and global earthquake rate and rupture forecasts underpin seismic hazard and risk assessments. They can also serve to test critical hypotheses about seismogenesis, including earthquake nucleation, rupture, interaction and variations of their characteristics with tectonic setting. Global models offer greater testability than regional models because of the larger and more frequent earthquakes. Initiatives to construct and test global models have been led by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the European H2020 project RISE, re/insurance interests and others. Regional models, on the other hand, benefit from more available and higher resolution datasets, from dense geological records to waveform-similarity enhanced catalogs and long historical catalogs that can be exploited to express bespoke hypotheses, such as spatio-temporal b-value variations, foreshock patterns, Coulomb stress transfer, geodetically detected aseismic slip or fault-based rupture forecasts. Regional and national models are more commonly constructed and can underpin national seismic hazard models and require testing at lower magnitudes to increase test data. We welcome contributions that construct and test probabilistic earthquake forecast models and algorithms from regional via national to global scales. Submissions may include hypothesis-generating research about what controls earthquake potential but should also develop plans for testing prospectively. We also seek submissions that build on vetted earthquake forecasts to construct seismic hazard and risk models, particularly at global scales.
Conveners
Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol (max.werner@bristol.ac.uk)
David Jackson, University of California, Los Angeles (djackson@g.ucla.edu)
Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (ds@gfz-potsdam.de)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | On the Use of Statistical Tests for Evaluating Spatial Earthquake Forecasts | 09:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Spatial Clustering of Aftershocks Impacts the Performance of Physics-Based Earthquake Forecasting Models | 10:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Ensemble Modeling of Physics-Based and Statistical Forecasts During the 2016/17 Central Apennines (Italy) Aftershock Sequence | 10:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Earthquake Forecasts Using Voronoi and Superthinned Residuals | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Retrospective Evaluation of Weekly UCERF3-ETAS forecasts of California Seismicity | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 75 Minute(s) |
Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts III
Description
Type: Oral
Date: 4/22/2021
Time: 9:45 AM to 11:00 AM Pacific