Using Recent M≥4 Seismicity to Estimate the Locations of Future M≥6.7 Earthquakes
Session: New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments II
Type: Oral
Date: 4/19/2021
Presentation Time: 02:45 PM Pacific
Description:
A previously published study (Ebel and Chambers, GJI, 2016) showed that the M≥4 seismicity in the two or so decades prior to several large California earthquakes took place randomly along the future fault ruptures and at rates exceeding one M≥4 earthquake every two years. Based on this association of a locally high rate of M≥4 earthquakes and a future M≥6.7 fault rupture, a prospective earthquake forecast was put together in 2017 that highlighted those California faults that may have the next Mw≥6.7 earthquake. Eight known faults with rates of M≥4 earthquakes greater than 0.5 earthquakes per year from 1997 to 2016 and with the M≥4 earthquakes spread along the faults were identified in the 2017 forecast: the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault, the Southern San Andreas Fault, the Calaveras Fault, the Little Lake Fault, the Maacama Fault, the Anza section of the San Jacinto Fault, the San Bernardino Section of the San Jacinto Fault and the San Clemente Fault. The Mw7.1 Searles Valley earthquake on 5 July 2019, the first M≥6.7 earthquake in California since the forecast was issued, appears to have fulfilled the Little Lake Fault forecast. When applied to earthquakes in Japan the 2000 Mw6.6 Western Tottori earthquake shows a premonitory pattern similar to that seen in California. Both the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto, Kyushu earthquake and the 2016 Mw6.2 Central Tottori earthquake had some M≥4 earthquakes along the fault in the two decades before the mainshocks. However, the 1995 Mw6.9 Kobe earthquake had little M≥4 seismicity in the years prior to the mainshock. There was also a high rate of M≥4 earthquakes on the Wenchuan fault in China prior to the 2008 earthquake. The results of these analyses suggest that the locations of recent M≥4 earthquakes may indicate which faults could have strong earthquakes within the next decade or so.
Presenting Author: John Ebel
Student Presenter: No
Authors
John Ebel Presenting Author Corresponding Author john.ebel@bc.edu Boston College |
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Using Recent M≥4 Seismicity to Estimate the Locations of Future M≥6.7 Earthquakes
Category
New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments