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Predicted Warning and Triggering Rate, and Sensor Self-Noise Constraints for an Earthquake Early Warning System in Canada

Session: Earthquake Science, Hazards and Policy in Cascadia II

Type: Oral

Date: 4/20/2021

Presentation Time: 06:15 PM Pacific

Description: 

The utility of an EEWS depends on how often events requiring warnings occur, and how reliably the system can be operated. Events which are too small to warrant alerts but which nevertheless trigger the system provide a valuable way to validate system operation. We estimate both warning and trigger rates for Canada based on a synthetic earthquake catalog. For Metro Vancouver, it is estimated that there will be a broadcast warning at MMI IV issued once every four years, while for Montreal the estimates are one such warning every five years. Setting the trigger threshold to yield 25-30 triggers per year for each region, so that each month there is a high probability of a system test, requires a detection threshold of approximately Mw2.0. The requirement of detection on four sensors, together with the planned sensor density, implies detections are required to epicentral distances of c.35 km. We fit models of Mw2.0 P-wave spectra at 35km for eastern and western Canada together with observed ambient noise at existing sites to constrain the acceptable sensor self-noise.

Presenting Author: Stephen Crane

Student Presenter: No

Authors