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Date: 4/20/2021

Session Time: 2:30 PM to 3:45 PM Pacific

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Where Do We Go from Here?

A half century after its introduction (Cornell, 1968), probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) has been adopted widely by governmental agencies and industry as the standard approach to assess hazards from future earthquakes. PSHA maps are used for myriad reasons, including building code development. Over time, extensive research has been done to develop methodology and refine key inputs -- earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Increasingly, PSHA maps are based on input ERFs and GMPEs that are constrained by best-available science, subject to certain assumptions.

However, due to the long time horizons of long-term PSHA maps relative to paleoseismic, historical and instrumental observation periods, evaluation of maps remains challenging. In this session we welcome contributions focused on the question, where does PSHA go from here?  

For this session we welcome contributions focused on this question, including but not limited to: evaluation and/or testing of PSHA maps, novel approaches to improve PSHA and/or its inputs, investigations of the sensitivity of PSHA maps to inputs and/or assumptions and alternative approaches to PSHA.

Conveners

Susan E. Hough, U.S. Geological Survey (hough@usgs.gov)
Seth Stein, Northwestern University (s-stein@northwestern.edu)

Oral Presentations