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Date: 4/21/2021

Session Time: 5:00 PM to 6:15 PM Pacific

Updating the US National Seismic Hazard Models

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are a bridge between best-available earthquake science and public policy. Over the next few years, the National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will publish updates to three model regions: Hawaii, the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska. This effort will bring NSHMs for all 50 states in line with current data and modeling approaches. Although the CONUS NSHM was updated in 2018, the Alaska seismic hazard model was last updated in 2007 and Hawaii in 1998. Over the next few years, the NSHMP will evaluate the new NGA-Subduction GMMs for use in the Cascadia and Aleutian arc subduction zones. It will also consider deep basin effects in other locations with high population density as it did for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Salt Lake City in the 2018 CONUS update. New ground motion modeling approaches (e.g. simulation-based, non-ergodic) also require attention.

For this session, we invite contributions on current and future NSHM components. Example topics include: Atlantic and Gulf Coast and other alternative site amplification models, new fault data and models, fault-system modeling (e.g. UCERF3), NGA-Subduction GMMs, physics-based (3D simulation) ground motion model validation and implementation, non-ergodic aleatory uncertainty, basin models, new geodetic data and inversions, M-area scaling relations, the Alaska megathrust geometry and recurrence and novel approaches to modeling and computing hazard and associated uncertainties. Although the session is largely focused on updates to U.S. models, much of what goes into modeling earthquake hazard has global applicability. We therefore also welcome submissions on the development and details of other NSHMs worldwide.

Conveners

Peter M. Powers, U.S. Geological Survey (pmpowers@usgs.gov)
Allison M. Shumway, U.S. Geological Survey (ashumway@usgs.gov)
Mark D. Petersen, U.S. Geological Survey (mpetersen@usgs.gov)
Sanaz Rezaeian, U.S. Geological Survey (srezaeian@usgs.gov)

Oral Presentations