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Seismic Hazard and Risk Forecasting for the Groningen Gas Field: Case Study for Gas Year 2022/2023

Description: 

The public Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis (pSHRA) for the Groningen gas field is performed on an annual basis by the Geological Survey of the Netherlands based on the forecasted production strategy for the envisioned end-of-production and beyond. Here, we use pSHRA for the period October 2022 – September 2023 to demonstrate the full workflow, from the gas production forecast and Bayesian calibration of the Seismological Source Model (SSM), to the calculation and disaggregation of hazard and risk on a building level. This includes the forecasting of spatio-temporal-magnitude distributions of seismicity, the propagation through a Ground Motion Model (GMM) with a detailed site-response model, the modelling of building damage and collapse, and finally Local Personal Risk for the 150,000+ buildings in the area. We show how different model choices impact these results, and how hazard and risk can be disaggregated to gain a better understanding of the different aspects driving the hazard and risk.
The Groningen gas field, with its suite of models that are developed specifically for this area, offers a unique opportunity to showcase how a full PSHRA workflow can be applied in an induced seismicity setting, and how the results can be used by policy makers and regulators to make informed and science-based decisions.

Session: Advances in Characterizing Seismic Hazard and Forecasting Risk in Hydrocarbon Systems [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Sander Osinga

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors