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Developing Guidance to Communicate Global Aftershock Forecasts

Description: 

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for public aftershock forecasts following US earthquakes. An automated system produces forecasts for most M≥5 earthquakes, with the first forecast posted online ~20 minutes after the earthquake. These forecasts are presented using automated templates, based on best practices around tiered communication. While this system is not operational for earthquakes outside the US, the USGS has received requests for forecasts following damaging earthquakes worldwide and plans to produce forecasts for global earthquakes with a high number of fatalities (orange or red PAGER level). However, aftershock forecasting globally has the inherent challenge of communication across different languages and cultures. Further, aftershock forecasts made from outside the affected region can be a challenge for local science communicators because they may need to respond to questions from the media and the public about a forecast that they may not be familiar with themselves. To support the communication of aftershock forecasts globally, the USGS is developing additional public tools to assist local science communicators in understanding the forecasts and communicating them within their communities. A two-page communication guide will accompany the forecast template and will be translated into multiple languages. To develop this communication guide, we are in the process of facilitating meetings with science communicators in different countries to solicit feedback on its components. Additionally, updates to the automated template are required, specifically regarding protective action information. We currently recommend “Drop, Cover, and Hold On”, which is appropriate in the US, but not in other countries with poor building practices. By developing the communication guide and updating the current forecast template, aftershock forecasting will be more effective and accessible to reduce seismic risk worldwide.

Session: Collective Impact in Earthquake Science

Type: Oral

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 08:15 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Sara K. McBride

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors