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Visualization of Aftershock Forecasts Driven by User Needs

Description: 

The United States Geological Survey releases aftershock forecasts following large (M5+) earthquakes in the US and associated territories, using an automated system. Forecasts contain the expected number (and range) of aftershocks in a specified area for various magnitude thresholds and time windows. The numbers are released in an aftershock forecast product template, in tables and text. Visualizing these forecasts can better aid communication of aftershocks. In particular, we want to identify which forecast visualizations (including maps) can serve a variety of user groups, using a four-step research program. First, we hold workshops with members of target user groups, including emergency managers, civil/structural engineers, critical infrastructure operators, urban search and rescue teams, the media, public information officers/science communicators, and public health officials. In these workshops, users will perform small-group activities to elicit specific user needs on the types and dimensions of aftershock forecast information needed by their role (informational needs) and how this information would optimally be packaged (product needs). We will then develop a suite of forecast graphics and maps that align with these informational and product needs (step 2). In step 3, we plan to run a user experiment to test a subset of these forecast products. In the experiment, members of the target groups will use different forecast products to perform decision-making tasks based on common use cases of aftershock forecasts. The final step is to analyze the experimental data to reveal the characteristics of forecast products that can effectively communicate the forecast across user groups. Workshops and experiments will be held with participants from the United States, Mexico, and El Salvador to identify cross-cultural components of effective forecast communication. We present preliminary results from several user workshops and discuss next steps in the research agenda.

Session: Collective Impact in Earthquake Science [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Max Schneider

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors