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A New Approach for Assessing Fragility Curves in Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Studies. an Application to Costa Rica

Description: 

To quantify the human and economic losses caused by these events, seismic risk studies must deal with different types of uncertainties whose assessment methods are still under development, such as those associated with selecting fragility curves (FCs). The appropriate use of FC allows a better approximation of the level of performance of a structural system in the face of seismic hazards. In this respect, an inadequate selection of the FC can mean a notably unreliable estimation of damages and losses. This research proposes a methodology approach for assessing and selecting FCs for seismic risk studies from a catalogue of existing proposals available in the literature. To this end, a bibliographic search of different vulnerability and seismic risk studies for the Central American region has been conducted. A database was constructed with the parameters of the capacity and FCs available for diverse construction typologies. A multidimensional index based on several variables divided into key dimensions is proposed to facilitate the creation of a rational ranking of fragility curves in terms of adequacy. Additionally, the specific criteria considered to build this index were validated from a survey of experts and the implementation of the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

The FCs used in different vulnerability projects in Costa Rica are explored, applying the methodology developed in this case. As a result, it is concluded that in the diverse vulnerability projects, FC with very different probabilities of damage is being used for buildings with the same attributes. Moreover, the proposed methodology permits knowing the reliability level of the FC used depending on the class the curve was classified into based on their score. Therefore, it allows establishing the adequacy and uncertainty related to the selected FC, a relevant subject that the researchers should consider in seismic vulnerability and risk studies.

Session: Collective Impact in Earthquake Science [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Laura A. Navas Sánchez

Student Presenter: Yes

Invited Presentation: 

Authors