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The Application of a Liquefaction Probabilistic Models to South Italy: A Case Study

Description: 

The study of the incidence of the coseismic phenomena at the ground surface is becoming an increasingly demanding and fundamental need in terms of civil protection agencies, immediately after a strong earthquake, in near real-time. In this work, we test the reliability of statistical procedures developed globally to quantify the occurrence of liquefactions in probabilistic terms when applied to Italy. With this in mind, we used two models available in the literature: one from Zhu et al. (2017), currently implemented by the USGS, and one from the European project LIQUEFACT. We evaluated their reliability using a historical earthquake for which documented evidence of liquefaction is available. We parameterized the source of the earthquake of the 7th February 1783 in Calabria, Southern Italy, with the most up-to-date seismological and historical information available in the literature and tested sources with variable parameters to have an approach that would also cover the uncertainties associated with an ancient event. The two statistical models were built using global and detailed datasets. The latter was compiled explicitly for the area under investigation, to assess whether more specific and punctual information would bring a better constraint to the estimation. We used the historical data confirming liquefaction only as a validation benchmark, excluding them from the constraint of the models.

Session: Coseismic Ground Failure: Advances in Modeling, Impacts and Communication

Type: Oral

Date: 4/20/2023

Presentation Time: 10:30 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Licia Faenza

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors