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Assessing Potential Hazard and Risk from EGS Projects in Nevada and Oregon

Description: 

As part of the development of Induced Seismicity Mitigation Plans (ISMPs) for four proposed enhanced geothermal system (EGS) sites in Nevada and Oregon, we are evaluating the potential for induced and triggered seismicity and the associated seismic hazard and risk at each site. ISMPs are being developed in line with the seven steps described in DOE’s Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (Majer et al. 2012). In Step 1, we performed preliminary screening-level risk analyses. We collected readily available information and data that could be used to assess the potential impacts on the local communities and stakeholders and performed a simplified analysis to evaluate those impacts during routine operations, including a possible worst-case scenario. Step 2 is an outreach and communications program, developed by the EGS owner. In Step 3, we reviewed and selected criteria for ground vibration and noise, assessing the existing environments in areas of potential impacts to establish a baseline, then evaluating the anticipated impacts. Step 4 is seismic monitoring being performed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. In Step 5, we estimated the seismic hazard at each project site due to both natural and induced seismicity. The former provides a baseline from which to evaluate the additional hazard that may be imposed by induced earthquakes. In Step 6, we developed a robust estimate of the seismic risk prior to the project and associated with the stimulation. Risk here includes the potential for: 1) structural and non-structural damage to residential housing, community facilities, and infrastructure of industrial, commercial, research, and medical facilities; 2) socioeconomic impacts from damaged infrastructure and operations interference in business and industrial facilities; and 3) nuisance (human perception of the ground shaking). The risk analysis helps evaluate alternative operational procedures, including those that could mitigate negative effects and minimize the risk from induced seismicity. Finally, Step 7 is the development of the ISMP.

Session: De-risking Deep Geothermal Projects: Geophysical Monitoring and Forecast Modeling Advances

Type: Oral

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 09:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Ivan G. Wong

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors