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Alaska Earthquake Early Warning Scenarios and Warning Time Estimates

Description: 

Alaskans face a pervasive seismic hazard due to numerous fault systems, such as the Aleutian subduction zone, the Queen Charlotte-Fairweather fault system, and crustal faults like the Denali fault. These hazards leave many communities in Alaska vulnerable to strong shaking caused by large earthquakes. An Alaska earthquake early warning (EEW) system has the potential to reduce emergency response times and give Alaskans time to take protective actions. Despite this, Alaska does not presently have EEW capabilities. Alaska's size, diverse population, and highly varied tectonic environment pose scientific and social questions distinct from current EEW development in the United States.

We present a range of deterministic earthquake scenarios designed to examine how different source characteristics, such as magnitude, depth, location, and fault system, impact the performance of EEW in Alaska. For each scenario, we use travel-time estimates and the distribution of the existing seismic network in Alaska to model detection, alert, and warning times. We compare warning times to peak ground motions – obtained using ShakeMap 4 – to determine which ground motion intensities can receive warnings. Our results suggest that timely warnings for shallow earthquakes are reliable for ground motion intensities up to MMI V, with ideal scenarios receiving warnings up to MMI VII. We also find that deep earthquakes along the subducting slab have higher warning times for the same ground motion intensities when compared to shallow earthquakes.

Session: Earthquake Early Warning Optimization and Efficacy [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/20/2023

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Alex Fozkos

Student Presenter: Yes

Invited Presentation: 

Authors