A Decade of Prospective Evaluations of 1-Day Seismicity Forecasts for California: First Results
Description:
Since 2007, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been prospectively evaluating 24-hour seismicity forecasting models for California to address seismological questions with important implications for time-dependent earthquake hazards. Among others, the pool of 24 models includes various flavors of ETAS, STEP, non-parametric models, and ensemble models. Using statistical methods developed by CSEP, we assess the consistency of these models against observed M3.95+ earthquakes, and compare their long-term performance with that of an early standard ETAS model. Our prospective dataset contains nearly 600 target events, including the 2010 M7.2 el Mayor-Cucapah, 2014 M6.9 Cape Mendocino, and 2014 M6 South Napa earthquakes. Here, we present preliminary test results that may be helpful in improving our ability to forecast earthquake clustering, and advancing Operational Earthquake Forecasting in California.
Session: New Methods and Models for More Informative Earthquake Forecasting
Type: Oral
Date: 4/19/2023
Presentation Time: 08:30 AM (local time)
Presenting Author: Jose A. Bayona
Student Presenter: No
Invited Presentation:
Authors
Jose Bayona Presenting Author Corresponding Author jose.bayona@bristol.ac.uk University of Bristol |
Marcus Herrmann marcus.herrmann@unina.it University of Naples Federico II |
William Savran wsavran@usc.edu Southern California Earthquake Center |
Philip Maechling maechlin@usc.edu Southern California Earthquake Center |
Warner Marzocchi warner.marzocchi@unina.it University of Naples Federico II |
Maximilian Werner max.werner@bristol.ac.uk University of Bristol |
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A Decade of Prospective Evaluations of 1-Day Seismicity Forecasts for California: First Results
Category
New Methods and Models for More Informative Earthquake Forecasting