Real Time Gutenberg-Richter b-Value Estimation for an Ongoing Seismic Sequence: An Application to the 2022 Marche Offshore Earthquake Sequence (Ml 5.7 Central Italy)
Description:
The real-time estimation of the b-value parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitudes is essential in short-term forecasting of ongoing seismic sequences. The spatiotemporal variability of this parameter is indeed often interpreted in terms of physical processes, and therefore as a precursor of upcoming strong events.
Nonetheless, the b-value estimation is known to be susceptible to several sources of bias, such as the completeness magnitude, and this may lead to a wrong interpretation of the estimates obtained. Still, the global increase of the coverage of seismic stations, as well as the development of new algorithms for detecting earthquakes in the last decades, allowed us to enormously expand the number of events in instrumental seismic catalogs, thus reducing some potential biases. This led to increase the interest in studying the spatial and temporal variations of the b-value, with particular focus on real-time estimation.
In line with this promising research branch, here we present the results of an analysis we performed in the early stage of the Costa Marchigiana (Italy) seismic sequence. In particular, we estimated both the completeness magnitude Mc and the b-value within the first 4 and 7 days after the initial strong event, and interpret the results in terms of "forecasting avail". We highlighted some critical issues to consider in the real-time evaluation of both Mc and the b-value. These are ascribed to the roughness of the data recorded at an early-stage, an unreliable evaluation of Mc with statistical approach, the short-term aftershock incompleteness entailed after the initial strong event, and the magnitude binning.
Session: New Methods and Models for More Informative Earthquake Forecasting [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/19/2023
Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)
Presenting Author: Ilaria Spassiani
Student Presenter: No
Invited Presentation:
Authors
Ilaria Spassiani Presenting Author Corresponding Author ilaria.spassiani@ingv.it Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia |
Matteo Taroni matteo.taroni@ingv.it Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia |
Maura Murru maura.murru@ingv.it Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia |
Giuseppe Falcone giuseppe.falcone@ingv.it Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia |
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Real Time Gutenberg-Richter b-Value Estimation for an Ongoing Seismic Sequence: An Application to the 2022 Marche Offshore Earthquake Sequence (Ml 5.7 Central Italy)
Category
New Methods and Models for More Informative Earthquake Forecasting