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Room: 208A

Date: 4/20/2023

Session Time: 8:00 AM to 11:15 AM (local time)

Opportunities and Challenges in Source Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis
Evaluating earthquake rates is critical to assess seismic hazards for a variety of applications including national building codes, catastrophe risk modeling and site-specific studies for critical facilities. To accomplish this, recent national and regional seismic hazard models have used interdisciplinary approaches that combine geological, geodetic and seismological models. Often, fault-based models are complemented with distributed (or smoothed) seismicity models derived from earthquake catalogs, especially in regions where knowledge of the fault network is largely incomplete. Some efforts have begun to incorporate physics-based (dynamic) earthquake models, which produce synthetic catalogs spanning hundreds of thousands of years. In active areas, there are complicated cases where different seismotectonic regimes are present, such as subduction zones (interface and intraslab sources) juxtaposed with crustal sources. Some other frontiers include complex multi-fault ruptures, models for earthquake occurrences (Poissonian versus non-Poissonian rates) and region-specific source scaling properties.

In this context, there is an impetus for integrated approaches that take advantage of different datasets to deliver a consistent model of earthquake rates, their spatial distribution and potential rupture mechanisms. In this session, we welcome contributions that are focused on the advancements in the development of source models, with new methods, datasets and/or hypotheses. Research topics pertinent to this session include but are not limited to: distributed seismicity models, magnitude-frequency distributions, models for earthquake occurrences, time-dependent seismicity, active fault models, region-specific source scaling properties, inversion of slip-rates, simulated seismicity and synthetic catalogs and subduction sources. We also look forward to region-specific investigations that provide useful case studies.

Conveners
Kiran Kumar S. Thingbaijam, GNS Science (k.thingbaijam@gns.cri.nz)
Chris Rollins, GNS Science (c.rollins@gns.cri.nz)
Matt C. Gerstenberger, GNS Science (m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz)
Andrea L. Llenos, U.S. Geological Survey (allenos@usgs.gov)
Marco Pagani, GEM Foundation (marco.pagani@globalquakemodel.org)
Delphine Fitzenz, Risk Management Solutions, Inc (delphine.fitzenz@rms.com)
Andrew J. Michael, U.S. Geological Survey (ajmichael@usgs.gov)
Andy Nicol, University of Canterbury (andy.nicol@canterbury.ac.nz)

Oral Presentations