Room: Ballroom
Date: 4/20/2023
Session Time: 8:00 AM to 5:45 PM (local time)
Understanding and modeling uncertainties in earthquake ground motions are significant tasks of scientific interest and societal relevance. Variability in earthquake rupture and the physical mechanisms controlling it, as well as linear and nonlinear effects on seismic wave propagation from source to site, are fundamental scientific questions that have not been fully answered, and which may vary across regions. Ground-motion uncertainty is of significant interest for many earthquake hazard applications, though it is not always accounted for consistently. Perhaps the most sophisticated treatment of uncertainty occurs for probabilistic seismic hazards analysis, which partitions uncertainty into two components—a natural (aleatory) variability and knowable (epistemic) uncertainty that can be determined with more information. As the increasing number of available ground-motion records and simulations are utilized in the development of nonergodic ground-motion models, key questions addressing uncertainty have arisen: What is the natural variability of earthquake rupture, what controls it and can we identify repeatable features for use in predictive models? What source parameters (e.g., stress drop, rupture speed) and mechanisms relating to wave propagation (e.g., site and path effects including attenuation and amplification) are well constrained and appropriate for predictive models? Can physics-based modeling reproduce observed ground-motion variabilities? How should hazard analyses partition epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability? How should approaches to partly or fully nonergodic seismic hazard analyses differ at different spatial scales (local, regional, national)? We encourage abstract submissions relating to fundamental and applied research or case studies in engineering and policy regarding the causes and treatment of earthquake ground-motion uncertainties.
Conveners:
Morgan P. Moschetti, U.S. Geological Survey (mmoschetti@usgs.gov)
Grace Parker, U.S. Geological Survey (gparker@usgs.gov)
Fabrice Cotton, GFZ Potsdam (fcotton@gfz-potsdam.de)
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, National Observatory of Athens (olga.ktenidou@gmail.com)
Poster Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Submission | Capturing Epistemic Uncertainty in Site Amplification Models with Different Site Proxies, Including Geomorphological Sediment Thickness | View |
| Submission | Implication of Rupture Model Parameterization Uncertainty in Simulated Ground Motions From the Mw 6.2, 24 August 2016 Amatrice, Italy Earthquake | View |
| Submission | Long-Period Strong Ground Motion Prediction for the Mw7.2 Earthquake Set by the Nankou-Sunhe Fault in Beijing | View |
| Submission | WITHDRAWN Spatial Changes in Earthquake Generated Ground Motion Observations: An Examination of Data From Four Small Aperture Arrays in Southern California | View |
| Submission | WITHDRAWN Determination of Seismic Intensities From Seismic Microzoning Results for the Xalapa Conurbation Zone, Veracruz, México | View |
| Submission | When the Acquisition Conditions and Processing Procedures of Seismic Data Increase the Ground Motion Model Uncertainties: Example of the Impact of Obspy and of the Sensor Installation Choices | View |
| Submission | Sensitivity Analysis of Conditional Mean Spectrum Ground Motion Selection Procedure | View |
Understanding and Modeling the Uncertainties in Earthquake Ground Motions [Poster]
Description