Room: 204
Date: 4/20/2023
Session Time: 10:00 AM to 11:15 AM (local time)
Understanding and modeling uncertainties in earthquake ground motions are significant tasks of scientific interest and societal relevance. Variability in earthquake rupture and the physical mechanisms controlling it, as well as linear and nonlinear effects on seismic wave propagation from source to site, are fundamental scientific questions that have not been fully answered, and which may vary across regions. Ground-motion uncertainty is of significant interest for many earthquake hazard applications, though it is not always accounted for consistently. Perhaps the most sophisticated treatment of uncertainty occurs for probabilistic seismic hazards analysis, which partitions uncertainty into two components—a natural (aleatory) variability and knowable (epistemic) uncertainty that can be determined with more information. As the increasing number of available ground-motion records and simulations are utilized in the development of nonergodic ground-motion models, key questions addressing uncertainty have arisen: What is the natural variability of earthquake rupture, what controls it and can we identify repeatable features for use in predictive models? What source parameters (e.g., stress drop, rupture speed) and mechanisms relating to wave propagation (e.g., site and path effects including attenuation and amplification) are well constrained and appropriate for predictive models? Can physics-based modeling reproduce observed ground-motion variabilities? How should hazard analyses partition epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability? How should approaches to partly or fully nonergodic seismic hazard analyses differ at different spatial scales (local, regional, national)? We encourage abstract submissions relating to fundamental and applied research or case studies in engineering and policy regarding the causes and treatment of earthquake ground-motion uncertainties.
Conveners:
Morgan P. Moschetti, U.S. Geological Survey (mmoschetti@usgs.gov)
Grace Parker, U.S. Geological Survey (gparker@usgs.gov)
Fabrice Cotton, GFZ Potsdam (fcotton@gfz-potsdam.de)
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, National Observatory of Athens (olga.ktenidou@gmail.com)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | Between and Within-Site Variabilities: How Large Are They? How Far Can We Reduce Them? | 10:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | The Influence of Impedance-Ratio Distributions on 1D Linear Site Response Proxies | 10:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Constraining Between-Event Variability of Kinematic Rupture Scenarios: A Case Study of an Mw6.2 Earthquake in Central Italy | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Physics-Based Broadband Ground Motion Simulations of M6.5 Scenario Earthquakes in Central and Eastern US, Including Surface Topography: Ground Motion Variability Related to Earthquake Rupture Characteristics | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Epistemic Uncertainty in Ground-Motion Prediction in the Indian Context: Evaluation of Ground-Motion Models (GMMs) for the Himalayan Region | 11:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 75 Minute(s) |
Understanding and Modeling the Uncertainties in Earthquake Ground Motions
Description