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Evolution of Short-Term Seismic Hazard in Alberta, Canada, From Induced and Natural Earthquakes: 2011–2022

Description: 

During the last decade, there has been an increase in seismic activity in the province of Alberta, Canada. This rise in seismic activity has mainly resulted from induced earthquakes related to particular hydraulic fracturing and water disposal injection wells operating in the development of shale oil and gas plays. The seismic hazard related to induced seismicity could be higher than the natural seismic hazard, especially in areas with small-to-moderate natural seismicity. To properly characterize the seismic hazard resulting from incorporating induced earthquakes, we generated short-term seismic hazard maps from 2011 through 2022 for the province of Alberta. We adapted the traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, which is typically designed for long time frames (for instance, 50 years), to generate annual seismic hazard maps that can be used to better capture the shorter-scale human-induced seismicity. We found that the seismic hazard maps have been dominated by induced seismicity cases, including hydraulic fracturing activities in the Duvernay Fm., near Fox Creek, and water disposal activities near the Musreau Lake. Short-term retrospective seismic hazard maps provide an instrument to quantify and report changes in the seismic hazard at a regional scale, which is especially important considering past and emerging induced seismicity cases related to the energy industry in Alberta.

Session: Understanding and Managing Induced Seismicity

Type: Oral

Date: 4/19/2023

Presentation Time: 11:15 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Mauricio Reyes Canales

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors