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Geophysical Monitoring for Feeding Decision Support Tools: The Crucial Role of Uncertainty for a Sound Management of Induced Seismicity

Description: 

Geophysical monitoring is a frequently used tool to manage the potential effects of underground anthropogenic activities. Different parameters such as earthquake hypocentral location and magnitude, peak ground motions, and ground deformation, among others, are growingly used as input for decision support tools (e.g., traffic-light systems) that are implemented for managing induced seismicity. Such decisional systems define the operative reactions to be enacted once a seismic event occurs near a certain anthropogenic underground activity. The outcome of the geophysical monitoring in such cases is critical, since any decision taken, on the basis of the information provided by the monitoring data, involves a great deal of responsibility. In this context, any effort for a reliable evaluation of the parameters feeding the decision support tool is as important as the determination of its “near-to-reality” uncertainty. Here, by 'near-to-reality' uncertainty, we refer not only to formal errors resulting from fitting a given model but also to the effects of all the 'known unknowns' in the modeling process. A careful assessment of uncertainties becomes crucial for rational decision making. In this work we analyze different sources of uncertainty that can be relevant for the determination of different geophysical parameters generally used for managing induced seismicity. We use a logic‐tree‐based ensemble modeling approach for framing the problem in a decision‐making context. We find that often‐neglected epistemic uncertainties (i.e., arising when considering alternative plausible modeling approaches or data) can be considerably larger and more representative of the state of knowledge than the standard errors that are usually reported. Due to the potential impact of decision making under uncertainty, we stress that an objective evaluation of epistemic uncertainties associated with any parameter used to support decisional processes must be a priority for the scientific community. The implementation of this approach is framed within the activities of the INGV’s Center of Monitoring Underground Activities in Italy.

Session: Seismic Monitoring, Modelling and Management Needed for Geothermal Energy and Geologic Carbon Storage - III

Type: Oral

Date: 5/2/2024

Presentation Time: 02:00 PM (local time)

Presenting Author: Alexander

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors