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Room: Tikahtnu Ballroom A

Date: 5/1/2024

Session Time: 2:00 PM to 3:15 PM (local time)

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are a bridge between best-available earthquake science and public policy. The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) recently published a 50-state update that provided updates to the conterminous U.S., Alaska and Hawaii NSHMs. The USGS plans to update the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) NSHM by the end of 2025 and the Guam and Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa and Neighboring South Pacific Islands NSHMs by the end of 2026. For this session we will present the 2023 NSHMs for Alaska and the conterminous U.S. and progress on the update of the 2025 PRVI NSHM and invite contributions on topics that will influence future seismic hazard models, with an emphasis on Alaska. Topics include, but are not limited to: seismicity catalogs, declustering and smoothed seismicity models, geologic and geodetic deformation models, multi-fault ruptures, improved representation and quantification of epistemic uncertainty, new ground motion models (GMMs), including non-ergodic models, incorporation of physics-based (3D simulation) GMMs, basin effects, site response, directivity and time dependence. We also invite contributions on the use of NSHMs for scenario development, risk assessment for both buildings and infrastructure and other applications of risk mitigation including those within the insurance industry. We are also interested in contributions that highlight potential impacts of hazard modeling uncertainties on downstream applications. 

Conveners:
Jason M. Altekruse, U.S. Geological Survey (jaltekruse@usgs.gov)
Julie A. Herrick, U.S. Geological Survey (jherrick@usgs.gov)
Mark D. Petersen, U.S. Geological Survey (mpetersen@usgs.gov)
Peter M. Powers, U.S. Geological Survey (pmpowers@usgs.gov)
Emel Seyhan, Moody's RMS (Emel.Seyhan@rms.com)
Allison M. Shumway, U.S. Geological Survey (ashumway@usgs.gov)

Oral Presentations