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Characterizing Uncertainty in the Canadian National Seismic Hazard Model

Description: 

A major effort is underway for the critical review of the included epistemic uncertainty in the Canadian seismic hazard model and thence influence on hazard products other than the mean. Within the Canadian engineering community, mean hazard is used for most designs and safety analyses, even for critical infrastructure and facilities. While site-specific models are required for most high-importance structures, the national model is often used as a screening tool or for comparison against site-specific results. Understanding the full distribution of epistemic uncertainty is warranted. At a minimum there needs to be a renewed focus on upper fractile (84th, 90th, 95th percentile) hazard, because the upper tail of the distribution is likely the tail that will most often challenge the engineered performance of a structure during a large earthquake. However, estimating upper fractile values brings additional model-building challenges. This presentation will focus on how uncertainty is currently included in the Canadian national seismic hazard model and on areas of research currently being explored to improve the characterization and communication of epistemic uncertainty within Canada’s PSHA models.

Session: Assessing Seismic Hazard for Critical Facilities and Infrastructure – Insights and Challenges - I

Type: Oral

Date: 5/3/2024

Presentation Time: 02:30 PM (local time)

Presenting Author: Michal

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors