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Modelled Impacts of Rupture on the Newly Discovered XEOLXELEK-Elk Lake Fault, BC, Canada

Description: 

Canada has not experienced a fatality from earthquake shaking since 1870. This relative seismic quiescence, and the lowered public perception of risk that is causes, are at odds with a national risk assessment that estimates a mean value of nine fatalities per year from earthquake shaking. Additionally, it is estimated that a major earthquake near an urban center could cause hundreds or even thousands of fatalities for the country, in addition to tens of thousands of ruined buildings and infrastructure assets and up to tens of billions of dollars in direct financial losses, without accounting for secondary perils. The newly discovered XEOLXELEK-Elk Lake Fault on the Saanich Peninsula, British Columbia, poses a threat to the major population center of Victoria as well as several important pieces of infrastructure on Vancouver Island. Its shallow extent and proximity to housing will pose additional challenges by thwarting earthquake early warning and potentially creating localized fault displacement damage that residential homes are not designed to withstand.

In this study, the Canadian Seismic Risk Model framework is used to assess the impact of earthquakes on the XEOLXELEK-Elk Lake Fault, in terms of building damage, life safety, and disruption. Attention will also be paid to the major highways in the area, which connect Victoria to mainland British Columbia via the BC Ferries terminal in Swartz Bay. These results can be used by emergency managers, planners, and other decision makers to justify needed preparedness and mitigation work to respond to this newly discovered fault line.

Session: Regional-Scale Hazard, Risk and Loss Assessments - I

Type: Oral

Date: 5/2/2024

Presentation Time: 05:00 PM (local time)

Presenting Author: Tiegan

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors