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Short-Term Earthquake Forecast Using Precursor Phenomena

Description: 

The year 2023 marks exactly 100 years since the 1923 Taisho Kanto Earthquake, which was a massive trench earthquake that occurred in the Sagami Trough. It is known that large-scale trench earthquakes, so-called Kanto earthquakes, have occurred repeatedly in the Sagami Trough, and that the 1703 Genroku Kanto Earthquake occurred, causing great damage. On the other hand, there is also concern about an earthquake directly below the Tokyo metropolitan area. According to the Cabinet Office, there is a 70% probability of an earthquake directly below the Tokyo metropolitan area occurring within the next 30 years. Earthquake disaster prevention measures are more focused on post-event response. The main pre-earthquake countermeasures are to strengthen buildings and structures against earthquakes, and there is no system for active evacuation based on prior information before a disaster occurs, as in the case of heavy rainfall disasters in the weather, even though the occurrence of an event is uncertain. In the case of the torrential rain disaster, the decision makers were appropriately informed of crisis avoidance actions and were able to manage the risks. This is due to the experience of the decision makers and the accuracy of the advance information. In the case of torrential rain disasters in Japan, typhoons and torrential rains occur somewhere every year, accumulating knowledge and insight into the spatiotemporal events before and after the event. Observation technology has also advanced, and it is now possible to grasp the current situation through radar images and other means. What about earthquakes, on the other hand? The government's view on prior information, except for long-term forecasts, has not been established. The time scale of large earthquakes that cause damage does not match the time scale of human life, and knowledge has not been accumulated efficiently. The preparation for the earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area and the direction of future earthquake disaster mitigation research (short-term forecasting research) will be discussed using the ULF geomagnetic field variation.

Session: Towards Advancing Earthquake Forecasting and Nowcasting: Recent Progress Using Ai-Enhanced Methods [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Date: 5/1/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Katsumi

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors