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Study of the b-Value Change Preceding the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake M7.6, Japan

Description: 

On January 1, 2024, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 occurred in the Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan. The Noto Peninsula lies on the southeastern margin of the Japan Sea, and the northeastern tip of the Noto Peninsula has been subject to a swarm seismic activity for the last three years, with the largest earthquake being a Mw 6.3 event that took place in May 2023. The Noto earthquake swarm mainly include four regions: northern, northeastern, western, and southern, and the depths are mainly distributed at 10-15km. This study aims to investigate the statistical characteristics of seismicity of Gutenberg-Richter Law, with a focus on the b-value, an important parameter used in earthquake prediction. And we also introduce the parameter P to examine the significance level of b-value changes in the temporal variation by bootstrap approach with Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). As the selection of magnitude of completeness (Mc) in the catalog has significant impact on the results of b-value, in this study, the maximum curvature (MAXC) technique and the bootstrap approach is applied to calculate Mc value. Then the b-value is estimated by the Aki-Utsu maximum likelihood estimation. The anomalous increase in b-values preceding a main seismic event indicates heightened and intensified seismic activity, reflecting the accumulation and subsequent release of stress in the crust. This phenomenon signifies a region where seismic occurrences become more frequent, signaling the imminent occurrence of substantial earthquakes.

Session: Towards Advancing Earthquake Forecasting and Nowcasting: Recent Progress Using Ai-Enhanced Methods [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Date: 5/1/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Wenchao

Student Presenter: Yes

Invited Presentation: 

Authors