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Seismic Dynamics in Advance and After the January 1, 2024 Mjma 7.6 Noto Peninsula Earthquake

Description: 

Earthquakes are critical transitions in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere. We continue characterizing foreshock, main shock, and aftershock earthquake sequences in terms of their magnitude-space-time variability and scaling properties, including the time-dependent control parameter of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, which value η = τ × 10^B×(3.5-M) × L^C, in essence, controls distribution of inter-event times between earthquakes at a given site (here τ is the time between the two successive earthquakes, M is the magnitude of the second one, L is the distance between the two, B is analogous to b-value of the classical Gutenberg–Richter relationship, and C estimates fractal dimension of the epicenter loci). A systematic statistical analysis of the recent 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake discloses that seismic activity at angular distances of 1° and 2.5° from its epicenter resided at steady levels of η before a dramatic change after origination of the seismic swarm marked with escalating maximum of earthquake magnitude: M5.1 on 2021/09/15, M5.4 on 2022/06/19, and M6.5 on 2023/05/05. The M2.5+ aftershocks of the later strong shock followed exponential decay and eventually terminated with the M2.7 quake on 2023/12/04, i.e. 15 days in advance the immediate M5.7 foreshock 4 minutes in advance at 3 km from the epicenter of the major strike. A large rupture 160 km long occurred on the Noto Peninsula, causing tsunami. The aftershocks of the M7.6 shock follow a power decay from 96 M2.5+ events on the first day to about 1-3 a week by the end of February.

Our results of systematic analyses of foreshock, main shock, and aftershock sequences in Central Italy, New Zealand, Southern Alaska, and Japan (i) do not support presence of a unique universality in seismic energy release, however, (ii) provide fundamental constraints on modelling realistic earthquake sequences, (iii) give a new insight into better understanding of regional seismic dynamics, and (iv) can be used to improve seismic and tsunami hazard assessments, including forecast/predictions at different space-time scales.

Session: The 2024 Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake and the Associated Earthquake Swarm Beneath the Noto Peninsula, Central Japan [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Date: 5/3/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Alexander

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors