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Visual Communication of Aftershock Forecasts Driven by User Needs

Description: 

The U.S. Geological Survey releases aftershock forecasts following large (M5+) earthquakes in the U.S. and associated territories. Forecasts show the expected number (and range) of aftershocks in a specified area for various magnitude thresholds and time durations. Forecasts are released using a product template that contains tables and text. Visualizing these aftershock forecasts can more effectively communicate this information. In this research, we seek to identify which forecast visualizations (including maps) can serve a variety of user groups. In 2023, we held workshops with members of target user groups, including emergency managers, civil engineers, critical infrastructure operators, firefighters, public health officials, the media, and other science communicators. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit specific user needs on the dimensions of aftershock forecast information needed by their role (informational needs) and how this information would optimally be displayed (product needs). We conducted these workshops in the United States, Mexico and El Salvador to understand which forecast products may be effective across countries. Many users reported needing maps of shaking hazard to support their work. We find a greater variation in user needs across profession than country, and that user needs also vary with time. We identify common categories of use cases across the disparate professions and connect users' informational and product needs to these user archetypes. We discuss practical implications for effective visual communication of aftershock forecasts and other natural hazards.

Session: Creating Actionable Earthquake Information Products - II

Type: Oral

Date: 5/1/2024

Presentation Time: 10:30 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Max

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors