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Engineering Earthquake Early Warning

Description: 

The most cutting-edge advances in earthquake early warning (EEW) have been primarily concentrated on real-time seismology. However, to maximize the potential of EEW as a credible tool for seismic resilience enhancement, there remains a strong need to develop next-generation end-to-end decision-support systems that use interpretable probabilistic impact-based estimates and account for malfunctions (i.e., false alarms) towards more risk-informed stakeholder decision-making on EEW installation/alert triggering. This presentation addresses this challenge, showcasing a series of recent significant EEW contributions.

First, I present the results of a state-of-the-art feasibility study for EEW conducted across Europe, representing the only attempt in the literature to spatially combine traditional seismologically driven EEW decision criteria (i.e., lead time) with proxy risk-oriented measures for earthquake impact and alert accuracy. These results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be particularly effective for areas in Greece, Italy, and Turkey. The findings offer a unique transnational perspective on EEW's potential relevant to various stakeholders interested in leveraging the technology.

I then present an innovative approach for enhanced risk-informed decision-making on triggering EEW alerts. The proposed methodology integrates earthquake-engineering-related seismic performance assessment procedures/metrics (e.g., costs, downtime, and casualties) with multi-criteria decision-making tools within an end-to-end probabilistic framework that robustly tracks uncertainties. Such a methodology enables explicit consideration of end-user preferences (importance) towards the predicted consequences in the context of alert issuance. The proposed approach is demonstrated using various case-study infrastructure systems in Europe, for which the optimal decision (i.e., “trigger” or “don’t trigger” an EEW alert) is investigated across a range of ground-motion intensities finding that the best action for a given level of ground shaking can change depending on stakeholder preferences.

Session: End-to-End Advancements in Earthquake Early Warning Systems - II

Type: Oral

Date: 5/3/2024

Presentation Time: 04:30 PM (local time)

Presenting Author: Carmine

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors