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WITHDRAWN Updating ShakeMap for Italy: Selection of Ground Motion Models for Volcanic Areas and Cumulative Mapping Tools for Civil Protection

Description: 

WITHDRAWN The recent seismic activity in the Italian volcanic areas, particularly the intensification of bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields, highlights the need to update seismic motion analysis tools. This study presents the enhancement of the ShakeMap system for Italy by implementing new Ground Motion Models (GMMs) specifically designed for volcanic zones. These models account for the unique geological and dynamic characteristics of these regions, providing more accurate estimates of ground shaking intensity. In particular, the seismicity in some volcanic areas, such as Mt. Etna and the Phlegraean Fields, presents a peculiar scenario where relatively small but shallow earthquakes can cause significant local damage. Therefore, this research focuses on near-epicentral observations to evaluate the ability of the selected GMMs to predict ground shaking in the near-source region of shallow events. The assessment of the available GMMs is made through the adoption of cross-validation techniques.

In addition, a new tool has been developed to produce “cumulative” maps of ground-shaking that take the maximum values of the peak ground motion parameters for a given region and time period. These maps appear crucial for civil protection strategies (e.g., disaster risk management) and long-term risk assessments. By serving as a benchmark for comparing observed shaking levels with predictions from seismic hazard models, they improve the understanding of seismic impact and risk distribution. Overall, this tool enables the prompt visualization of the ground shaking experienced throughout a region, supporting strategic decision-making during emergencies, preventive planning, and the assessment of infrastructure vulnerability.

The results demonstrate significant improvements in ShakeMap's ability to capture the seismic features of volcanic areas and provide a robust foundation for enhancing the resilience of Italian territories to seismic and volcanic risks.

Session: Modern Waveform Processing and Engineering Datasets - Accessibility, Quality Control, and Metadata [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/17/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Alberto

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 51

Authors