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Mathematical Support for Slope Processes Risk Zoning Using Data About Possible Earthquakes

Description: 

Seismic slope processes may be more dangerous than temblors by themselves. Such as, an avalanche, occurred after four earthquakes struck central Italy, swept over a small resort hotel in January 2017 [1]. In March 2003 an earthquake in the Himalayan ranges, triggered the avalanches, which buried more than two dozen Indian soldiers and porters [2]. Therefore, slope processes risk zoning, taking into account information about possible seismic events, presents some features of interest. Wherein, these phenomena induced by earthquakes may be considerably larger than such slope processes without temblors. Besides, avalanche wind may create additional load on structure during seismic events.

Current Canadian Building Code describes the earthquake as a stochastic process. Earthquake intensity corresponding given probability of its springing up at the known area can be calculated. Acceptable level of probability of an accident death is 0.000001. And it must less, if the slope process results in loss of life of more persons. Therefore, it is possible to compute probability of the temblor, which can cause an avalanche. Method Monte Carlo is utilized.

Slope processes risk zoning based on such approach permits to prepare maps providing high level of safety in regions, where both earthquake and slope processes are not impossible. It prevents loss of life and property damage.

References

1. Povodelo, E. Avalanche in Central Italy Buries Hotel, Leaving Up to 30 Missing / E. Povodelo, G. Mullany // The New York Times, 2017, January 20, p. A8.

2. Hopes dim for avalanche victims // Metro, 2003, March 10, p. 4.

Session: Earthquake-triggered Ground Failure: Data, Hazards, Impacts and Models - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/17/2025

Presentation Time: 09:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Mikhail

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 6

Authors