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Towards Operational Earthquake Forecasting in Switzerland

Description: 

Seismic risk is among the most significant natural hazard threats to society in Switzerland, as well as in many other European and global contexts. While earthquakes cannot be prevented or predicted, improving our understanding of the probability of damaging events can play a critical role in preparedness and risk mitigation efforts.

To date, only a handful of countries, including Italy, New Zealand, and the United States, operate authoritative operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems. The recent review by Mizrahi et al. (2024a) examines these systems in detail, highlighting key similarities and differences in their models, testing methodologies, and communication strategies. Moreover, the review incorporates insights from an expert elicitation process, shedding light on areas of consensus and ongoing debate within the earthquake forecasting community.

Building on these findings, the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) is now advancing efforts to develop an operational earthquake forecasting system for Switzerland. This presentation will provide an overview of our progress to date, including the development and testing of a forecasting model calibrated on the Swiss earthquake catalog (Mizrahi et al., 2024b). I will also discuss plans for the system’s implementation, covering aspects such as computational workflows, forecast visualization, and strategies for integrating automated testing frameworks. Together, these efforts mark a significant step toward operationalizing earthquake forecasting in Switzerland and enhancing societal resilience to seismic risk.

Session: Improving the State of the Art of Earthquake Forecasting Through Models, Testing and Communication [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Leila

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 134

Authors