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WITHDRAWN The Effect of Structural Damage on Shakemap

Description: 

WITHDRAWN ShakeMap provides ground shaking intensity estimation in the region hit by a seismic event. It is built based on a conditional Gaussian random field (GRF) model, where the mean and covariance matrix are from a ground motion model and the recordings from seismic monitoring stations. On the other hand, it has been recently shown that information about the ground shaking intensity can be also obtained indirectly from observed damage to the built environment. The object of this study is to present how much damage information reduces the uncertainty in ground motion estimates if compared to the original ShakeMap, and how it tends to more clearly identify, in comparison with the original ShakeMap, the actual shaking intensity at the sites where damage is surveyed. To update ShakeMap a probabilistically-consistent procedure, based on sequential Monte-Carlo method, was employed. The algorithm distinguishes between surveyed and unsurveyed sites. At damage-surveyed sites, it results that the conditional random field of ground accelerations is not a GRF anymore. In contrast, at unsurveyed sites, the conditional random field of ground accelerations remains a GRF. The case study of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake in central Italy is considered to illustrate this approach and its effect on ShakeMap. In fact, for this seismic event, extensive damage data were collected from thousands of surveyed buildings. Based on these data, a series of illustrative cases were set up changing the number of sites and buildings surveyed at each site.

Session: Macroseismic Intensity: Past, Present and Future [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/17/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Annalisa

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 22

Authors