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Dynamic Earthquake Rupture and Tsunami Modeling for the Gulf of Aqaba

Description: 

The Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) constitutes the southern segment of the Dead Sea Transform Fault, functioning as a left-lateral strike-slip plate boundary that separates the Arabian plate from the Sinai micro-plate. The GoA is also the seismically most active region of the Red Sea and has hosted well-documented historic large earthquakes and thus poses high seismic and tsunami risks for coastal communities. The rapid development of the NEOM project highlights the need for enhanced seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. However, the offshore nature of the fault system and limited data complicate the efforts.

In the study, we construct various 3D multi-segment fault geometry to represent alternative possibilities of the GoA fault system constrained by recent high-resolution multibeam imaging and local seismicity. Our models integrate regional seismotectonics, topo-bathymetry, off-fault plasticity, and different levels of fault roughness. We perform dynamic simulations with varying hypocenter locations to explore rupture dynamics, fault interactions, and mechanically plausible rupture scenarios in the GoA, analyzing their effects on seafloor deformation and the resulting tsunami excitation. In addition to successfully reproducing the 1995 Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake, our results show that fault geometry, hypocenter location, rupture directivity, and prestress conditions affect how and if rupture propagates across the multi-segment GoA fault system. Our simulations lead to varying slip distributions across different fault segments and different magnitudes, and reveal that the GoA fault system can host up to Mw 7.6 earthquakes if the entire fault network ruptures. Tsunami simulations document pronounced directivity effects and highlight the critical importance of incorporating time-dependent seafloor displacement into tsunami modeling and hazard assessment for the GoA region. Additionally, the potential supershear rupture significantly amplifies seismic risk and seiche effects of the narrow Gulf geometry amplifies tsunami risk to coastal communities, underscoring the need for enhanced preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Session: Numerical Modeling in Seismology: Theory, Algorithms and Applications - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/17/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Paul Martin

Student Presenter: No

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