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Modeling and Forecasting Induced Seismicity in the Midland Basin, Texas and Oklahoma

Description: 

Earthquakes can be triggered by human activities such as injection or extraction of fluids into or from the subsurface, in particular in relation to oil and gas operations. These earthquakes can result from pore pressure diffusion or stress perturbations due to poroelastic effects. Here, we present a modeling framework which calculates stress changes resulting from various subsurface operations (i.e., wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing, conventional and oil and gas unconventional prodcution), and forecasts induced seismicity at large basins scale. The model can be used to infer causal links between seismicity and subsurface operations, as well as to hindcast/ forecast seismicity both temporally and spatially, based on past/future injection/extraction scenarios. We first demonstrate the capability of the framework in the case of seismicity induced by wastewater disposal in Oklahoma. We next focus on induced seismicity within the Midland basin in Texas. Understanding the seismicity at the scale of the Midland basin is challenging due to a variety of subsurface operations, which include hydraulic fracturing, salt water disposal and oil/gas production, as well as the complex geological setting of the basin. We show that in both case studies, the model can be calibrated successfully to the observations assuming that earthquakes are triggered by poroelastic stress changes. The time response of the seismicity depends primarily on the initial strength excess, which can result in the induced seismicity lagging the onset of stress perturbation by many years. It also depends on the earthquake nucleation process which affects the response to stress changes at a short (<1 year) time scale. The modeling framework provides an effective tool to forecast induced seismicity and to investigate the factors that determine the potential of a subsurface operation for triggering earthquakes.

Session: From Physics to Forecasts: Advancements and Future Directions of Induced Seismicity Research - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:45 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Samson

Student Presenter: No

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