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Modeling and Forecasting Wastewater Disposal Induced Seismicity in the Delaware Basin

Description: 

Due to advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, hydrocarbon production in the Delaware Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, a subbasin of the Permian Basin, has surged over the past decade and is expected to continue growing in the foreseeable future. As a byproduct, considerable amounts of wastewater brine are produced that require disposal into subsurface reservoirs. Current disposal target formations include siliciclastic rocks of the Delaware Mountain Group above the producing shale intervals and deeper carbonate rocks of the Ordovician (Ellenburger) through Devonian above the basement. Seismicity in the region, which in places has exceeded M5, has been primarily associated with wastewater disposal. Here, we focus on basement seismicity in Culberson County and model it with a stress-driven 3D geomechanical model based on rate-and-state friction. First, we determine the pore pressure evolution from a flow model using a realistic stratigraphic framework and history match to bottom hole pressure measurements . Next, we estimate Coulomb stress changes on the fault planes where earthquakes are occurring using finite element modeling, including poroelasticity. Then, we relate Coulomb stress changes to the observed declustered seismicity using a stress-driven model based on rate-and-state friction. Our models can be used to test different possible triggering factors such as direct fluid triggering or poroelastic triggering. Our results suggest that induced seismicity in Culberson County is primarily driven by pressure diffusion from deep disposal rather than through poroelastic stress transfer, implying fluid migration to the basement. Curtailment of deep disposal in Texas since 2022 has resulted in a declining trend of induced seismicity. However, impacts from deep injection in New Mexico cannot likely be ignored as a potential factor moving forward.

Session: From Physics to Forecasts: Advancements and Future Directions of Induced Seismicity Research - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:15 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Krittanon

Student Presenter: No

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