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Evaluating the Impact of Earthquake Early Warning Systems on Casualty Reduction: A Global Framework With a Focus on Central America

Description: 

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide alerts before strong ground shaking, these systems offer the potential to save lives by allowing individuals to take protective actions or by triggering automated responses. The effectiveness of EEW depends on the timely and accurate issuance of warnings. Despite improvements in EEW algorithms and the installation of denser seismic networks, the full extent of the benefits in terms of risk reduction remains unquantified. We apply a probabilistic framework to quantify the potential benefits of EEW systems in reducing casualties. By evaluating expected warning times, actions taken by individuals upon receiving alerts, and system performance, the framework allows for the estimation of human losses under various EEW scenarios.

The primary focus is on Central America, where EEW has recently been implemented, a region where frequent seismic activity and vulnerable building stocks present significant risks. Preliminary findings indicate that mature EEW systems could lead to a ~10% reduction in average annual fatalities. We also explore strategies to enhance EEW effectiveness in the region, such as densifying the seismic network to increase warning times and evaluating different protective actions (e.g., Drop, Cover, and Hold On vs. evacuation). A cost-benefit analysis demonstrates that the economic advantages of public EEW systems significantly outweigh the associated costs, confirming EEW as a cost-effective mitigation strategy. Further, an approach of evacuation on ground floor leads to significant increase in fatality reduction as compared to DCHO.

While the study focuses on Central America, the framework is adaptable to other seismic regions. We will present key scenarios from around the world, illustrating how EEW systems can optimize casualty reduction in diverse seismic contexts. To ensure global relevance, exposure and vulnerability data from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) are used, offering a consistent foundation for hazard, exposure, and vulnerability modeling.

Session: Performance and Progress of Earthquake Early Warning Systems Around the World [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/16/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Benazir

Student Presenter: Yes

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 122

Authors