Room: Key Ballroom 11
Date: 4/15/2025
Session Time: 10:30 AM to 11:45 AM (local time)
Advancing Time-dependent PSHA and Seismic Risk Assessment: Accounting for Short- to Medium-term Clustering
Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment often overlook the dynamic nature of earthquake clustering, including foreshocks, aftershocks, and extended sequences, as well as the damage accumulation from multiple earthquakes. Recent sequences, such as the 2010/2012 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand, the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in the USA, and the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes, highlight the need to refine our methodologies to better capture the dynamic nature of earthquake clustering. This session will focus on approaches to integrating time-dependent models into seismic hazard and risk assessments.
We invite contributions on advancements in time-dependent seismic hazard analysis and methods for incorporating earthquake clustering, including clustering-based models that address spatiotemporal variations, techniques for integrating aftershocks and foreshocks into hazard assessments, and vulnerability assessments that incorporate time-dependent fragility curves and damage accumulation. Additionally, we welcome studies that include real-world applications that assess the effectiveness of these analyses, or tackle current limitations and propose solutions. One of the goals of the session is to promote strategies for building capacity and upskilling end-users to effectively utilize these methodologies.
This session is targeted at seismologists, earthquake engineers, policymakers, insurance and re-insurance professionals, and academics in geosciences and structural engineering. The session will foster dialogue on the future of time-dependent seismic hazard and risk analysis. By embracing the complexities of earthquake behavior, we can enhance future risk assessments and strengthen community resilience.
Conveners
Edward Field, U.S. Geological Survey (field@usgs.gov)
Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science (m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz)
Kenny Graham, GNS Science (k.graham@gns.cri.nz)
Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol (max.werner@bristol.ac.uk)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | Exploring Long and Short-term Time Dependencies in Earthquake Risk Modeling | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Who Needs ETAS-based Seismic Hazard? | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Risk Implications of Poisson Assumptions and Declustering Inferred From a Fully Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecast | 11:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Accounting for Earthquake Sequences in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment | 11:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Seismic Models for the Taiwan Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Tradition and Innovation | 11:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 75 Minute(s) |
Advancing Time-dependent PSHA and Seismic Risk Assessment: Accounting for Short- to Medium-term Clustering - I
Description