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The U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Description: 

The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a draft update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The last update of the PRVI NSHM was completed in 2003, and therefore this update includes over 20 years of updated science and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates include (1) a seismicity catalog based on improved Puerto Rico Seismic Network data, (2) new declustering, smoothing, and seismicity rate models, (3) new magnitude scaling relationships, (4) an updated geologic fault and deformation model, (5) new modeling of subduction zone geometry and deformation, (6) improved fault source rupture models and a more complete representation of epistemic uncertainties, (7) updated ground motion models for both crustal and subduction sources, with adjustments made based on PRVI-specific data, and (8) development of epistemic and aleatory variability models specific to PRVI. These updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. Draft hazard results, including comparisons with the previous model, will be presented. NSHMs are community- and consensus-based models, with the goal to incorporate the latest data, models, and methods currently available. Public workshops throughout the update process, as well as an extensive review process, allow for community feedback and acceptance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM.

Session: Advancing Time-dependent PSHA and Seismic Risk Assessment: Accounting for Short- to Medium-term Clustering [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Kevin

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 77

Authors